New research from IIT Delhi has offered strong support for India’s digital economy, confirming that opinion trading and sports trading platforms—especially those linked to real-time events—are largely skill-based rather than games of chance.
As digital platforms become more sophisticated, formats that let users take positions on real-world developments—be it elections, sports, or economic events—are growing in popularity. Far from being mere entertainment, these platforms are emerging as data-driven decision-making tools, where success hinges on news awareness, analytical skills, and behavioural insights.
Key Findings of the IIT Delhi Study
The research used performance indicators like Return on Investment (ROI), net gains, and user ranking patterns to assess whether consistent success was due to skill.
1. Learning Test
Users who regularly followed news, tracked real-time developments, and made informed choices showed consistent improvement. This progression suggested that users were learning and building skills over time.
2. Persistence Test
High performers continued to outperform others across multiple periods—an indicator of sustained skill, not random success.
3. Dilution Test
When randomly selected users were added to high-performing groups, the overall performance of the group dropped—proving that earlier success wasn’t just due to luck or high activity levels.
Real-Time Responsiveness
The study also observed that prediction markets on these platforms adjusted within minutes of major news or event updates, mirroring the rapid decision-making seen in stock trading and other analytical domains.
Low Risk, High Engagement
- Platforms typically operate with capped risks, time-bound markets, and no credit-based systems.
- User activity often surged during key events, indicating event-driven participation.
- Notably, participation is spreading to Tier 2 and Tier 3 cities, reflecting deeper digital penetration across India.
Encouraging Analytical Thinking
By rewarding early and accurate predictions—often before all facts are known—these platforms promote critical thinking and timely decisions, rather than reactive behavior. This design may encourage users to engage more deliberately and thoughtfully.
Implications for India’s Digital Ecosystem
As India’s digital and knowledge economy continues to evolve, the study highlights the role platforms like opinion and sports trading can play in:
- Fostering data literacy
- Building analytical thinking
- Promoting informed civic and economic participation
Final Thoughts
While further research may be needed to shape regulations, the IIT Delhi study offers compelling evidence that these platforms rely on skill. As conversations around digital classifications and policy continue, this research could be pivotal in shaping how these new-age tools are perceived and governed.
