India must create at least 8 million jobs every year for the next decade to fulfill its ambition of becoming a developed country by 2047, said Chief Economic Advisor V Anantha Nageswaran during the Columbia India Summit 2025 at Columbia University in New York.
Job Creation and Manufacturing Push
Speaking at the event hosted by the Deepak and Neera Raj Centre on Indian Economic Policies, Nageswaran stressed that India’s path to “Viksit Bharat” (Developed India) hinges on two critical factors:
- Generating 8 million jobs per year over the next 10–12 years
- Increasing manufacturing’s share of GDP, especially in the face of China’s dominance in the sector post-COVID
Tough Global Environment Ahead
He warned that India cannot rely on a favorable global environment as it had in the past three decades. The current and upcoming global landscape, shaped by geopolitical tensions and technological disruption, poses significant challenges.
“AI could threaten entry-level and IT-enabled service jobs,” he noted. “We must strike a balance between labor-centric strategies and the adoption of technology. This is not a choice for technologists alone—public policy must lead this balance.”
The Role of MSMEs and Global Integration
Nageswaran emphasized the need to strengthen the small and medium enterprise (SME) sector, which is essential for a thriving manufacturing ecosystem. “No country has become a manufacturing powerhouse without a viable SME backbone,” he said.
He also called for better integration of Indian businesses into global value chains to enhance competitiveness and domestic innovation.
Capital, Trade, and Growth
With global capital flows under pressure from ongoing conflicts, Nageswaran said India must either increase its investment rate or optimize returns from existing investments.
While exports will remain important, he cautioned that their contribution to GDP growth will likely decline further:
- 40% contribution to GDP growth in 2003–2008
- 20% in the following decade
- Potentially even lower in the coming years
This, he said, makes it essential for India to improve quality, R&D, logistics, and last-mile connectivity to remain competitive.
Sustaining Growth in a Post-COVID World
India has averaged 8% GDP growth in the three years following the pandemic. However, sustaining that pace will be difficult. Nageswaran argued that 6.5% growth over the long term, with efforts to push beyond 7% through domestic deregulation, would still be a strong outcome.
India’s Outlook Amid Global Uncertainty
The UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD) recently projected India’s economy to grow by 6.5% in 2025, fueled by strong public spending and monetary easing, even as the global economy faces potential recession.
The Columbia event brought together faculty, students, and economic policy experts to discuss India’s economic future, innovation potential, and trade strategy.
“The road ahead is challenging,” Nageswaran concluded, “but with clear priorities and policy resolve, India can navigate its way to becoming a developed nation by 2047.”
